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*Due to licensing restrictions we have removed our August Resinstats report, instead we've given you the latest ResinPulse report from 9.25.2025 below. For any questions or comments please contact us at sales@resintel.com.
Highlights
September moves to second best month of the year
PGP Contracts Settle
Jobs bounce back slightly
US Manufacturing showing its resilience
Resin Markets
The spot resin markets pumped the brakes a touch today after the blistering first 3 days of this week and although it wasn’t a huge day, transactions still came together with September becoming our second largest volume month of 2025 behind July. Despite August’s lower performance Q3 ranks as our most voluminous of the year by a long shot.
The market has had a downward pricing bias these past several weeks and months with buyers not having any real fear that prices would strongly move against them but we’re cautiously optimistic that the sentiment is slowly shifting and buyers are seeing the value at these levels, I am not saying prices are ready to start advancing just that we are not on a path to $.00/lb. With the Fed cutting rates in September and a possible 1-2 more cuts to be done before year end we believe demand can begin to be rebuilt with not only investment from lower rates but clarity in the ongoing trade wars which has become less opaque.
As our founder Michael Greenberg always says, “The cure for low prices, are low prices”. As global overproduction continues to become more apparent the lower prices will force some closures of less efficient or profitable assets helping to pair back supply. Also, low prices compress margins, eroding the motivation to run units hard. A perfect example is shown in the chart below. PDH margins are currently squeezed to almost nothing when comparing their cash cost of making PGP from propane vs the spot PGP price from today. Propane prices have not decayed to the level that PGP has and crude has largely held up. With less incentive due to tight margins to run PDH units hard, a throttling back in production can occur, removing some inventory and potentially lifting prices. The resin industry largely operates on the laws of supply and demand and as prices decrease, reactions are triggered, shifting curves.
Monomer Markets
September Ethylene was traded today at $.20/lb for Houston delivery while some calendar trades were made with 4Q Ethylene done at $.20/lb showing a flat curve through year end and 1Q 2026 done at $.215/lb. Front month September PGP was quiet today and marked equal to yesterday’s $.3125/lb while 1 Q 2026 was done at $.3525/lb. September PGP contracts have settled now at flat to August, $.355/lb is the mark.
US Economic Data
Jobless claims fell to 218,000, below expectations of 235,000, signaling some labor market improvement after the Fed’s September rate cut. Durable goods orders were another bright spot, up 2.9% versus an expected decline of 0.4%. Even stripping out transportation, orders gained 0.4%, pointing to broader industrial resilience. Some suggest that anticipation of easing monetary policy may have sparked fresh activity across manufacturing, which, if sustained, could translate into firmer downstream resin demand in packaging, durable goods, and automotive.
The US trade deficit narrowed sharply in August, dropping 17% to $85.5 billion from July’s $102 billion — the lowest level in two years. Improved trade flows, combined with a weaker dollar, continue to give international buyers a more favorable window. Meanwhile, existing home sales held steady at 4.0 million units in August, just above expectations of 3.96 million. While affordability remains a constraint, stabilization in housing is encouraging for plastics tied to construction, building materials, and household products.
Thank you for reading and we will see you all on Friday to close out a very busy week.
-Dominick Russo, CFA
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