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Highlights
Better activity today as buyers do some restocking
Ineos files anti-dumping cases in Europe
Ethylene slips a touch, PGP holds
Cold weather grips much of the country
Resin Markets
Spot resin trading was much better today, particularly for Polyethylene as a hint of firmness has gotten domestic buyers to pull the trigger on some restocking. We have been stating that there is value at these levels and we have done a bit of restocking ourselves. Bottoms are very difficult to nail and some buyers are deciding they would prefer to forego the potential last couple of pennies of this drawn out down move than risk missing out on these low prices.
I don’t think anybody is worried at the moment of a sharp upward correction but producers have certainly taken a firmer tone and availability has been tougher in November. Natural Gas has also soared and Ethane prices are generally up compressing margins.
Polypropylene was not as active today but we found more of an appetite for offgrade resin from buyers rather than prime as further discounts are always sought in a down trend. We have also observed resellers being very aggressive to flip their inventories while producers have been more patient, choosing to pass on lower bids.
In an interesting twist Ineos is taking an aggressive stance to defend its European position, filing ten major anti-dumping cases with the European Commission to counter a surge of low cost imports from Asia, the Middle East, and the U.S. Europe has been a steady market for US PE, especially given the favorable position that the Euro has against the dollar, currently sitting at $1.1586/€1, our currency converter stands by to quickly check exchange rates and our international freight estimator to get landed costs.
The company warns that without stronger trade defenses and relief from higher energy and carbon costs, Europe risks hollowing out its entire manufacturing base. European production faces the highest feedstock costs and green initiatives, although important are very costly with strict regulations in Europe. Ineos does have US assets as well, but have typically shied away from allowing its material to be sent to Europe, not wanting to cannibalize its business. To check on where Ineos produces material as well as other global suppliers you can refer to our Production Map.
We saw Braskem take a similar stance in Brazil against the US which resulted in anti-dumping fees against North American resin of nearly $200/MT , making it very difficult to compete. The difference here is Ineos is not leaving anybody on the sidelines whereas Brazil has allowed China and the Middle East to continue to ship without consequence.
Monomer Markets
Plenty of activity today in the monomer markets with November Ethylene slipping a quarter cent to $.1675/lb, December was also done many times at $.17/lb. PGP has held firm matching yesterday, trading at $.25/lb. December was sold a touch higher at $.255/lb while 2Q 2026 was brokered at $.30/b.
US Economic Data/Government Shutdown
The Senate has passed the funding bill that would reopen the US Government and it now moves to the house, where they will vote on Wednesday. After that it makes its way to President Trump where he’ll quickly sign but this bill only funds the Government until January 30th, 2026 to give time for longer term legislation to be hammered out but we could be looking at a repeat in January. For now, air travel is still restricted and will get worse before it gets better.
Small business optimism edged lower in October, with the NFIB Index slipping to 98.2 in October, down from 98.8 as owners cited weaker sales and profit pressures, though sentiment remained just above the long-term average. Labor quality again topped the list of Main Street’s concerns, while the Uncertainty Index saw a notable 12-point drop, signaling that while confidence has cooled, volatility in outlook has eased for now.
Global Trade
Switzerland may be on the verge of a breakthrough deal to slash U.S. tariffs from 39% to 15%, following what officials described as “very constructive” talks with Washington last week. While the agreement still needs to be finalized, Switzerland’s mix of investment pledges and trade sweeteners, including U.S. defense spending and energy projects, appears to have softened this administration’s stance to bring Switzerland back inline with the rest of the EU at 15%.
Weather/Logistics
An Arctic blast is sweeping across much of the U.S. this week, bringing record cold, heavy snow, and treacherous travel conditions from the Great Lakes to the Deep South. The freeze threatens to snarl trucking routes nationwide, likely slowing freight movement, tightening delivery schedules, and driving up short-term spot rates as carriers battle weather related delays. Natural gas prices have also climbed to $4.565/mmBtu on the colder weather outlook.
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