© 2026 Resintel. All rights reserved. Supply/Demand data provided by and copyrighted by the American Chemistry Council.
Highlights
Trading volumes slow today
Secondary market premiums developing
Crude oil jumps higher on fresh US sanctions on Russian oil
Housing market slightly improving as mortgage rates nudge lower
Resin Markets
Spot resin trading cooled a little today but the market has been on a bit of a hot streak and it’s not completely unexpected that things would slow a little. The industry still is in a major funk in the grander scale but we’ve been feeling things slightly turn more positive as buyers are recognizing that resin is relatively inexpensive and that value can be found at these levels, particularly for Polypropylene but Polyethylene buyers haven't exactly been shy.
I don’t particularly feel there is any risk of a major runaway up market but also don’t feel that there is another major leg lower in the short term. Things won’t change in a day so it's important to take note of these little changes in sentiment and we can't ignore buyers have been stepping up.
One thing we are observing is that resellers have been whittling down their inventories and have hesitated on taking positions with the general down trend, preferring only to buy resin if the sale on the other side will buy it all. With that leaves opportunity for those that do have ready to ship truckload inventory to command a little bit of a higher price. Not that big margins are being booked because to have that inventory ready in a falling market you would have had to buy it on the way down but that leaves those bold enough to buy larger volumes getting the biggest discounts and those only buying smaller quantities to ride the market down paying back a little bit of their gains by delaying purchases and having to buy spot ready loads.
Another noteworthy development is that crude oil jumped 5.6% today up $3.29/bbl on fresh US sanctions against Russian oil and is currently up 7.3% on the week, we dive more into that below but here is a chart of WTI vs domestic resin prices.
Monomer Markets
Propylene moved up today with spot October being bid higher than the previous days close at $.255/lb up $.0075/lb while back month strips also moved higher. The Nov-Dec trade rose to $.2725/lb today up from $.26375/lb yesterday. 1Q 2026 also was sold earlier in the day at $.305/lb but by day’s end was up to $.31/lb. The month’s average closing price for October is $.258/lb and a nice visual below of where we sit. We await contract to settle but will certainly be down a nickel or so from September's $.355/lb.
October Ethylene was done at $.17125/lb in Louisiana today and Texas delivery stayed put at $.185/lb while a 1Q 2026 trade was done at $.2075/lb.
US Economic Data
We got a little sliver of data today on Pending Home Sales for September which came in right at expectations of 4.06 million, up from 4 million in August. While we’re on housing let’s check in on mortgage rates which have started to trend lower again coming in at an average 30-year rate of 6.19%. Part of Trump’s overall economic plan are to get rates down to reignite the housing market. The housing market as a whole is a major end market for plastic products like films, plumbing, and appliances which can all boost domestic demand for Polyethylene and Polypropylene, we could use it to help soak up some of this oversupply.
Russia - Ukraine
Tensions in Eastern Europe escalated today after the U.S. scrapped a planned meeting between Trump and Putin in Hungary, President Trump felt that Putin was not serious enough about making peace at this time. Washington followed this up with fresh sanctions on Russian oil, specifically against two of the largest Russian producers Rosneft and Lukoil, sending crude prices higher as traders quickly priced in the risk of this escalating further. The idea is to hurt Russia economically by limiting the revenue generated by oil, putting pressure on them to end the conflict, these aren't the first sanctions and it hasn't been successful to date. To top all of this off Russian jets again flew into NATO member Lithuania's airspace. This conflict continues to drag on coming up on 4 years in February.
Global Trade
The US is really leaning on India and China to curb Russian oil imports to help in its effort to end the Russian Ukrainian conflict. The rhetoric has been mixed in the past as each country has had its spats with Trump, earlier in the year India stated they would purchase oil from wherever they chose so long as it served India when responding to Trump increasing their tariff rate to 50% for purchasing that oil. This time around things may be different however with India and the US closing in on a trade deal with a possible rate of 15%. China and the US are also set for meetings through next week in hopes to move their agreement along.
Storm Watch
Tropical Storm Melissa is strengthening and expected to become a major hurricane with some projections having it reaching category 5 but again it seems like it will head North, stay over the Caribbean and avoid entering the Gulf and affecting production. Accuweather has a nice projection below.
Here we come Friday, let's finish a busy week off with a great day!
-Dominick Russo, CFA
Copyright © 2025. Resintel. All rights reserved