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Below is a report written on 10.1.2026, for up to date, current daily reports please subscribe.
Highlights
October and Q4 start out hot
US sends more troops to the Middle East
Ethylene and Propylene both inch higher.
Resin Markets
New month/new quarter and the heavy pace of September carried over into October to begin the final quarter of 2026. Our trading desk was flooded with activity from overseas buyers for both PE and PP. Domestic trade skewed more towards PP today but all is a good sign. Sometimes when new quarters begin strategies instantly shift but the heightened activity is welcomed, let’s see if it can last.
A wide range of resins from LLDPE Film, to HD Film and Injection were sold offshore, mostly to Europe but plenty of interest to other regions as well. Prices were equal to the end of September but given the pace I’d expect asking prices to begin ratcheting up. What isn't readily available at the moment is LDPE Film. The export market has closed the gap in a major way between export and domestic prices.
When it came to domestic trading we saw much better action for PP where the spot truckload market is carrying a big premium to the higher volume railcar market. Reseller inventories are generally thin regarding PP loads at the moment leaving options sparse but buyers have been willing to step up for immediate deliveries versus buying large quantities for the discounts. As with PE, prices from September have carried over but some clients have asked but didn't PGP go down? Spot resin supplies are a bit tightened by a planned turnaround at LBI with Formosa and Braskem on the way.
As we look forward into Q4 we’re asking ourselves the question if we will see the major resin dump that happens each year. We don’t have a crystal ball but we do know that this has been anything but a typical year and the cycles are a bit shaken with the main catalyst being the War in Iran which is not resolved. In fact, the US is sending more troops to the Middle East, could just be negotiating or could be setting up for further conflict.
We just may not see the huge discounts we’re used to seeing in Nov and Dec even if prices soften somewhat. For now there are plenty of wildcards in play but we’ll keep you informed.
Monomer Markets
Monomer trading saw decent action today with October PGP trading at $.3825/lb and third quarter 2027 was brokered at $.39/lb. October Ethylene sold at $.2325/lb in a dated transaction while November and December matched the $.2325/lb.
US Economic Data
The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI was revised down to 55.9 in September from the 57.0 preliminary reading, but still improved from 53.9 in August and remained at its strongest level since May 2022. Output, new orders and employment all accelerated on stronger domestic demand, but exports continued to decline while input costs and supplier lead times increased.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI edged down to 54.5 in September from 54.6 in August, slightly below expectations of 55.0 but still signaling solid manufacturing growth as new orders and employment strengthened. The bigger story was costs, prices surged to 77.9 from 71.1 as tariffs, higher metals prices and rising petroleum costs tied to the Middle East conflict continued to squeeze manufacturers.
US construction spending rose 0.9% in August after a revised 0.1% decline in July, easily beating expectations for a flat reading as both residential and nonresidential activity improved. Private construction led the gains with spending up 1.1%, although total construction spending remains 1.7% below year-ago levels.
We head to Friday.
Once again, these markets change daily, for up to date reporting please subscribe.
- Dominick Russo, CFA
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