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Our recent year-in-review session examined how polyethylene and polypropylene markets evolved through 2025 and what resin buyers should prepare for in 2026. The discussion was led by Dominick Russo of Resintel and Michael Greenberg of The Plastic Exchange, using live Resintel dashboards and subscriber reports.
Polyethylene markets in 2025 were defined by exports, geopolitics, and rapid pricing cycles. Export volumes set records heading into the year and now represent roughly half or more of total U.S. PE sales, making global trade flows the primary driver of domestic pricing. Tariffs, freight disruptions, and geopolitical events created multiple short-term rallies and sharp pullbacks, with the market ultimately bottoming in October before stabilizing into year-end. Heading into 2026, producers are managing supply more tightly, aiming for modest price recovery, though global overcapacity continues to limit the size and duration of sustained increases.
Polypropylene and propylene dynamics shifted structurally in 2025 due to the expansion of PDH capacity. Increased propylene supply reduced spot volatility but pressured pricing and margins, changing how PP contracts are negotiated. Contract prices increasingly lagged spot movements, and late-year tightness created situations where spot material traded above contract levels. These evolving mechanics are expected to continue into 2026, with supply discipline and export growth remaining key variables.
Geopolitics and logistics played an outsized role across both markets. Trade policy, freight route disruptions, energy markets, and China’s capacity expansion all contributed to volatility. While the U.S. maintains a feedstock advantage, global pricing remains influenced by crude-linked production overseas and international trade constraints.
Key takeaway for 2026: expect shorter, export-driven price cycles, continued sensitivity to geopolitical and freight disruptions, and increasing importance of real-time spot market signals. Buyers who closely monitor spot pricing, logistics constraints, and plant activity will be best positioned to navigate the year ahead.For ongoing insight, attendees and readers are encouraged to follow Resintel’s daily and weekly reports, dashboards, and mapping tools used throughout the presentation.